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Predicting Rugby 2019 Results: The Knockout Stage (and a Look-Back)

This blog is the fourth in an ongoing series of blogs – the blog series will last during the time of the Rugby World Cup 2019!

I am back with new predictions as we enter the quarterfinals of the Rugby World Cup 2019!

A great week-end of rugby is ahead and I wanted to ask Smart Predict more on the chances of the eight remaining teams.

I leveraged the predictive model (still need to write about this), created a dataset with the relative characteristics of the eight teams and asked to get a probability for each game.

I thought it would be great to present the results in a SAP Analytics Cloud BI story.

As you can see:

  • A close game is predicted between England and Australia. A 56% chance is given for England to win the game.
  • Unfortunately, Wales is predicted to win over France with a 75% chance – gosh
  • Another tough game between New Zealand and Ireland – New Zealand gets a 59% chance of winning
  • Ultimately according to the predictions, Japan will not repeat the now famous “Brighton Miracle” and South Africa is predicted a 87% chance of winning.

Here goes to the “knockout stage”! Regarding the look back, it’s now time to check the accuracy of the predictive model for the pool stages.

Out of the 40 predictions:

  • 31 predictions turned to be correct
  • 6 predictions revealed incorrect
    • South Africa lost against New Zealand (13-23).
    • Uruguay won over Fiji (30-27).
    • Japan won over Ireland (19-12) & Scotland (28-21) (two fantastic performances from Japan!)
    • Georgia has beaten Uruguay (33-7).
    • Tonga has beaten the USA (31-19)
  • 3 games were cancelled due to the typhoon Hagibis.

Considering the 37 games played, the prediction accuracy for the pool stage has been 84% which is a good result. Let’s see what happens in the next stage, can’t wait!

October 24 Update: the Semi-Finals!

So the quarterfinals went ahead… exactly as the predictions said.

Out of the 41 games, 35 game results were predicted correctly and 6 incorrectly. The overall prediction accuracy is now 85%!

England, Wales, South Africa & New Zealand won and now meet in the semi-finals.

I scored these two upcoming games – you can see Smart Predict predictions below.

The model predicts New Zealand and Wales as the winning teams!

October 31 (Halloween?) Update: the last two games

Ouch the predictions for semi-finals were not the best ones to date (to say the least).

Surprisingly England has beaten New Zealand in a game they mastered from the haka to the final minute.

And Wales could not resist the very physical South Africans.

Nevertheless here is a new round of predictions for the last two games.

So according to the predictions I created with Smart Predict, England should be the world champion this year (but the probability is 59% only). And New Zealand should get the bronze medal.

Let’s see what the week-end brings.

Overall this has been a fantastic World Cup – my personal highlight is the Japanese team – they were awesome. And France did better than expected, this was nice to see as well.

I hope you enjoyed these blogs series. I hope to post a last one in the coming days.

Enjoy rugby, enjoy predictions!

 

 

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