I really haven’t paid attention to my own water consumption; out of all the utilities this is the cheapest bill for me. But for fun I thought I would try to forecast my consumption and compare the predictive capabilities of both Lumira and Predictive Analytics.
Above is my data acquisition in Excel; consumption is recorded on a quarterly basis.
I create a date/time hierarchy on the date
Above shows the Predictive options
I’m not sure I agree with the forecast, but it was interesting to see my consumption over the years. Around 2004-2005 time frame, I had a water garden in my back yard; I didn’t want to keep up with it so I stopped the water from feeding the garden. Then a few years later I disconnected my dishwasher when it stopped working and I decided not to replace it. Hence, my water consumption is minimal.
Unlike California, where I live we’ve experienced plenty of rain so there’s been no droughts. My decrease in consumption more had to do with stopping the water garden and stop using the dishwasher. I never tied the two events to a decrease in water consumption.
For fun, I thought I would try this in SAP Predictive Analytics. I didn’t have to do any data preparation, I just loaded the spreadsheet and selected an algorithm:
I tried triple exponential smoothing
Above are the parameters
Above are the results from triple exponential smoothing
I changed the algorithm to R Triple Exponential Smoothing and the results look better to me:
I don’t understand the spike in 2018 but the predicted values look more reasonable.