(The blog is submitted as part of the Data Geek Challenge III – DataGeek III: Thrones of Data, DataGeek III: How to Join)

– Please read the blog for further details.


Note: Published under “House of the Spirits – caring for the social good” for Advanced Section



http://www.dzs.hr/images/Popis.gif


Hello all,

the most exciting aspect of every research is when the results don’t match one expectations.

That usually means error and if it’s not an error, than it is discovery – new fact which requires additional research, conclusion and explanation.

During data preparation for DataGeek III chalenge I had that “AHAAAA” moment.

😏 😕 😀


Possibility of error has been excluded since data comes from Croatian bureau of statistics what means I have found interesting social phenomena which should be explored further by professionals.



I will share this document with my FB friends, there is probably sociologists among them.

Hey guys, check this out – can this be part of your next scientific paper? 😎

http://www.dzs.hr/Eng/images/Popis-Logo.JPG







Data has been collected from two public sources:

– Wikipedia – for the data of  total number of Croatian citizens during former Yugoslavia period

      Demografija Socijalističke federativne republike Jugoslavije – Wikipedia

– Census results for 2001 and 2011 from CROATIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

      REPUBLIC OF CROATIA – CROATIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS



Demographic situation in Croatia is similar to situation in most of European countries – birthrate is lower than mortality, population growth is negative.

Average Croat is 41 years old and trend is upward.

Historically, trend were different.

historical_overview.PNG

First available data source says Croatia had 3.779.858 citizens in year 1948. With continuous growth between 150.000 and 250.000 every ten years until the year 1991 when there was 4.784.265 Croatian citizens.

From 1991 until 2001 during period of war population has been decreased by 346.805. Decreasing trend continued during period 2001-2011 due to low birthrate and negative economic trends.

When comparing distribution of citizens by age for 2001 and 2011 becomes obvious

age_distribution.PNG

that Croatian population trends are similar to European. Declining birthrate due to uncertain economical prospects but also declining mortality due to increased quality of life and social security in general.

All those data shows expected results but there is also one anomaly, much more visible with different graph orientation:

age_distribution_anomaly.PNG

There is unusual decreased number of people during 2001 in range 55-59. Same occurs 2011, (ten years latter) in range of 65-69.

One could put that on account of war. During period of war those people were 45 to 49 years old – is that important after all?

Impact of war would be visible on all ranges that were adult during 1991 that means – from range 30-34 until, let’s say, 65-69 in 2001.

Accordingly, from range 40-44 until 75-79 in 2011.

Especially, It would be visible in statistical distribution for male population.

age_distribution_anomaly_male.PNG

But anomaly exists in female distribution too.

/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/age_distribution_anomaly_female_594780.png

At the end of the day, my conclusion is:

Croatian population is old. Aging process accelerates due to lower birthrate and mortality.

Anomaly in generation 55-59 of 2001 and 65-69 of 2011 isn’t explainable with war.

Additional detailed research should be performed in order to find the reason for that anomaly.

Mario Prkacin

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  1. Mario Prkacin Post author

    Well, at the end this anomaly is influenced by war.

    Not recent one during nineties but by WWII and by WWI and little bit by Spanish flu.

    Matter of fact, I found out that friend of me Ivo Turk who is demographic scientist published paper related to that topic during 2005.

    http://hrcak.srce.hr/file/1401

    (0) 

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