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4 weeks is a good indicator of performance and I’m fairly satisfied with my fantasy football team despite my 1-2 record (at the time of writing).  RG III’s poor performance plus injury in weeks 1 and 2 respectively cost me 2 very close victories.

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As I previously wrote, QB performance trended evenly outside of the top 3 so drafting value QBs in late rounds was critical.


Critical QB Observations

  • Russell Wilson is consistently and reliably scoring above projections.
  • Robert Griffin III is offensively inept and now injured.

I’ve had to replace Josh McCown AND RG III with Kirk Cousins and Blake Bortles.  This would have been a non-issue except Cousins threw 4 interceptions against the Giants.

Elway versus Marino.  Manning versus Brady.  Cousins versus RG III Bortles.  Who will carry me to fantasy football victory?


Matchup, Upside, Strength of Schedule

Let’s make a player comparison using the Fantasy Player Comparison Tool.

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It’s a small sample size of games between Cousins and Bortles, so I focused on matchup and upside.  The comparison tool recommends Cousins in every scenario.  I’m naturally skeptical, so let’s see what scheduling data and SAP Lumira tells us.

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Blake Bortles is in a lot of trouble. Jacksonville has a relatively weak schedule, yet its upcoming opponents are (on average) playing 10 percentage points than the expected winning percentage.  At just 2 percentage points Washington’s schedule appears easier.


Key Learnings

  • Despite a poor week 4 Kirk Cousins is still a better QB pick (for now).
  • Expect poor performance from Jacksonville players, better performance from Jacksonville opponents.
  • Jacksonville can expect a lot of losing, avoid choosing them as your DEF pick for ANY week.
  • An uncanny correlation between strength of schedule and opponent winning percentage.  It’s a trustworthy measure for cross-analysis.

Conclusion

If your goal (like me) is to get sustained, predictable QB performance, game managers as Alex Smith is a better bet. I’m hoping Kirk Cousins to be this year’s Nick Foles, so hopefully Thursday’s performance is just an abbreviation.

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