Analyzing marriages and divorces in Slovenia
My name is Patricija, I’m a postgraduate student at Faculty of economics and business in Maribor, where I first met with Lumira during the workshop SAP School. I made following analysis to get to know Lumira better and attend first SAP Lumira Challenge Slovenia.
It seems that in summer 2014 “eveeeeeeryone I know” was getting married, so when I was looking for a topic of my analysis I decided to analyze marriages and divorces in Slovenia.
I used dataset from Statistical office of the Republic of Slovenia, combined with dataset from Eurostat.
1. Does marriage / divorce decreasing or increasing over the years?
I used dataset with data from year 1954 to 2013.
First I created a line graph (below). At first glance it is seen that the number of marriages is decreasing, while number of divorces is increasing, which I somehow expected. The highest number of marriages was in 1972 (15,792 marriages). In 2003, the number of marriages fell below 7000 weddings per year and nine years later, in 2012 exceeded this limit with 7057 marriages.
On the other hand, the number of divorces increases. The first recorded data from 1954 shows that there were only 747 divorces, but in the next year the number exceeds 1,000 divorces per year and does not drop more. In 2013, was in Slovenia recorded 2351 divorces.
However, since the population is not static, I created a graph showing the number of marriages and divorce per 1000 inhabitants over the years (below), in order to determine if there are any major discrepancies. We can see that in 1954 was 9.3 marriages per 1000 inhabitants, which is the highest number in given time period. After 1970, the trend drops below 9 marriages per 1000 inhabitants and over the years does not exceeded this milestone. This graph shows that the least marriages was in 2005, only 3 per 1000 inhabitants.
In terms of divorces per 1000 inhabitants we see that the number of divorces in year 1960 exceeded the limit of 1 divorce per 1000 and then drop below it only twice, in years 1990 (0,90 divorces per 1000 inhabitants) and 1995 (0,80 divorces per 1000 inhabitants). In 2013 was recorded 1.1 divorces per 1000 inhabitants.
When analyzing the number of marriages and divorces over the years, it is necessary to take into account the fact that Slovenia’s population is aging. For example, in time period 1989-2007 the proportion of people younger than 15 years declined from more than 20% to less than 15% of population but, on the other hand, the proportion of people older than 65 years increased from less than 10% to more than 15% of population. The trend of an aging population is expected to continue in the future. Expected, in 2061 the proportion of people older than 65 years will exceed 30% of population, and the proportion of population younger than 15 years will not exceed the 15% of population (source: Slovenia Institute for Adult Education).
2. What is the trend of marriages / divorce in Europe in general?
Then I wondered if the trend of marriages and divorces in Slovenia differs significantly from the trend in Europe. I used dataset with data from 2001 to 2012 to create geographic graph (below).
I filtered the data to get three countries with the highest numbers. In the first place by number of marriages per 1000 inhabitants is Cyprus (102,1 marriages per 1000 inhabitants), followed by Turkey (81,5 marriages per 1000 population) and Macedonia (83,7). I was not surprise about the results, because the populations of these countries is among the most religious in Europe. During 2001-2012 was in Slovenia 41,2 marriages per 1000 inhabitants.
In this period of time, most divorces was in Lithuania (38,1 divorces per 1000 inhabitants), Czech Republic (36 divorces per 1000 inhabitants) and Latvia (35,3 divorces per 1000 inhabitants).
In Slovenia was 15 divorces per 1000 inhabitants from in years 2001-2012, which is lower than in it’s neighbors Austria and Hungry and higher than in Italy and Croatia.
3. What is the average age of bride / groom at wedding?
As already mentioned, the Slovenian population is aging and the graph below, which shows that the average age of grooms and brides is growing, is not surprising. The data from the 1956 shows that groom was in average 28.9 years old. Bride was about three years younger.
In 1993, the average age of groom exceeded the milestone of 30 years. The bride’s average age exceeded this milestone 13 years later, in 2006. In 2013, was groom in average 34,5 year old, bride was 31,6 years old.
I also used data from year 1970 on, to see the trend of the average age of groom and bride at first marriage. In 1970, was the groom at first marriage, on average almost 26 years old, and the bride was 2 years younger. After 2002 is groom at first marriage on average older than 30 years. In 2013, was the groom at first marriage in average age 31.5 years, bride was 29.2 years old.
I guess that the main reason for continuously increasing average age of grooms and brides is previously mentioned trend of aging Slovenians population and the fact that Slovenia ranks at the top by the number of young people still living with their parents (in 2011 was recorded that 85% of young people aged 18 to 29 still live at parent’s).
4. What is the trend of marriages / divorce in Slovenian regions?
There are 12 regions in Slovenia and I wondered how the number of marriages and divorces vary from one to another.
Lower Heat Map shows the number of marriages in each region in period of time 1995 – 2012.
Podravska region, the region where I live, is with 58,1 marriages per 1000 inhabitants at eighth place. Most marriages were in the Osrednjeslovenska (68,7 marriages per 1000 inhabitants), where live the most young people. I compared results with the registered unemployment rate and came to the conclusion that the number of marriages by region coincides with the percentage of young population living there and the percentage of registered unemployment.
Osrednjeslovenska is also on the first place by number of divorces. It is also the only region that has a divorce rate of more than 20%. Moreover, in 2011-2012, this share exceeds even 30%.
5. What is the average length of marriages that have ended with a divorce?
The dataset covers the time period 1954-2013.
I was surprised by the high number of marriages which lasted less than a year in years 1960 -1986. As shown, there was more than a 40 divorces of marriages with length less than 12 months per each year.
Number of marriages which lasted 1 – 4 years sharply decline after year 1983, and in 1990 dropped below the milestone of 400 divorces. Later, exceeded this milestone only once, in 2012 (403 divorces).
Number of marriages which lasted 5-9 years reached the highest point between years 1982-1983 (more than 800 divorces per year). Then sharply decreased and stabilized at 400 to 500 divorces per year.
Number of marriages which lasted 10 – 14 years, at least vary through a given period of time. On average, there was 200 to 400 divorces per year, with a few exceptions.
Number of marriages which lasted 15 or more years, shows a different trend as seen so far, because it is constantly growing. In the period 1996 – 2002 sharply increased and since then does not drop below 1000 divorces per year. It reach a peak in 2005 with a 1351 divorces.
6. It was more divorces with or without depended children?
Finally, I wanted to know whether divorces with or without dependent children dominated in period 1954 – 2013.
Number of divorces without depended children in 2012 caught up with and surpassed the number of divorces with depended children. The graph at point 5 shows that after 1997 the number of divorces of marriages that lasted less than a year started to increase. On the graph below, we can see that after year 1997 number of divorces without depended children also started to increase.
Some results I got was expected, other surprised me. As expected, number of marriages is decreasing and numbers of divorces is increasing. In 2001-2012 the most couple married in Cyprus, Turkey and Macedonia; the most divorces was in Lithuania, Latvia and Czech Republic. In terms of marriages and divorces in Slovenian regions is Osrednjeslovenska (where live the largest proportion of young people) at first place. It surprised me that while numbers of marriages that lasted less than 15 year is decreasing, the number of marriages that lasted more than 15 years is increasing. Also, the fact that was last year in Slovenia more divorces without dependent children, was quite a surprise.
Analyzing with Lumira was simple and fun. I realized my goal to get to know Lumira better. The hardest part was searching for datasets, combining and cleaning data. Once data was organized the rest went smoothly, which encourages me to make some more analysis.