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Using Simple Predictive Analysis and Lumira to Predict Super Bowl Score

This isn’t high tech or high expert analysis but something very simple.

I used the information from the regular season only (not the playoff games) from http://www.repole.com/sun4cast/data.html

In SAP BusinessObjects Predictive Analytics I decided to use the R-Single Exponential Smoothing.  The tooltip says “Time series forecasting using the single exponential smoothing algorithm from R library”.

In predictive I have the option to select “Trend” or Forecasting.  Input variable was scoring.  I selected forecasting:

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I output it to a CSV file then use Lumira to review the results.

2rscorevis.PNG

The first game shows the Broncos will will 32 to 31.  The second game shows Seattle will win with a 36-32 score.   I don’t think anyone can predict an exact game or score, but my “gut” says Seattle will win – how could you lose with such a great drumline:

You can learn more about Lumira and Predictive at BI 2014 and ASUG Annual Conference.  We have a very special session planned for Predictive at ASUG Annual Conference (TBA)

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