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Author's profile photo Tammy Powlas

Using Simple Predictive Analysis and Lumira to Predict Super Bowl Score

This isn’t high tech or high expert analysis but something very simple.

I used the information from the regular season only (not the playoff games) from http://www.repole.com/sun4cast/data.html

In SAP BusinessObjects Predictive Analytics I decided to use the R-Single Exponential Smoothing.  The tooltip says “Time series forecasting using the single exponential smoothing algorithm from R library”.

In predictive I have the option to select “Trend” or Forecasting.  Input variable was scoring.  I selected forecasting:

/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/1rscoring_377988.png

I output it to a CSV file then use Lumira to review the results.

2rscorevis.PNG

The first game shows the Broncos will will 32 to 31.  The second game shows Seattle will win with a 36-32 score.   I don’t think anyone can predict an exact game or score, but my “gut” says Seattle will win – how could you lose with such a great drumline:

You can learn more about Lumira and Predictive at BI 2014 and ASUG Annual Conference.  We have a very special session planned for Predictive at ASUG Annual Conference (TBA)

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      5 Comments
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      Author's profile photo Former Member
      Former Member

      Nice Analysis, Tammy!

      Looks like your gut feeling was right! I hope you placed some money on your predictions 🙂

      - Anthony

      Author's profile photo Former Member
      Former Member

      I must mention, in no way do we condone using Lumira as a tool to help wagering on sporting events, or the horses. Having said that, if anyone has any insight on the third race at Aqueduct, let me know.

      Author's profile photo Tammy Powlas
      Tammy Powlas
      Blog Post Author

      I don't gamble - so I didn't win anything...all for fun

      Author's profile photo Henrique Pinto
      Henrique Pinto

      You should have, lol.

      Author's profile photo Eduardo Rezende
      Eduardo Rezende

      No tools could predict the actual result! 🙂