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Forecasting using Predictive Markets – 2011 Innojam Sydney Winner

Here’s a little brief on the winner of the Sydney Innojam 2011 : Forecasting using Predictive Markets. I’d like to call the ‘module’ as SAP-PM/F.  🙂

Concept Brief :

A Predictive Market is a mechanism by which forecasting data is generated through a constructed market. Predictions are based on how the “share” of a prediction is trading in the market. In our example – we used it to gain an idea on  the best alternative among a set of flavours for a “Ladies beer” about to be launched.

In the end of the trading/prediction horizon, the Strawberry Beer was at the highest shareprice. The interpretation is that Strawberry Beer is likely to be the most successful among the flavours to be launched.

We used the following Technologies

  • Gateway : REST services for extending ERP
  • ABAP Stack for Data Model and market settlement engine
  • JQuery : Presentation Layer
  • HANA : data aggregation from multiple sources
  • Social media data mining through Yahoo Pipes
  • BI On Demand : analytical presentation
  • Gravity/ Streamworks : Collaboration

 Link to the original Business Scenario :





Concept Lead on Whiteboard




 Winning presentation – Rod and Tony



Youtube video uploaded by Acclimation :



BI On Iphone (It’s  a sim. Not quite smokes and mirror stuff – but close.  I think it impressed the judges.)

Ladies Beer Flavours : Chocolate (blue), Banana(yellow), Strawberry(green)



Web Frontend : John and Glen’s Baby (without which we’d be dead in the water)



iOS Frontend

(one of those things that never got finished due to landscape/connectivity issues. Would have been impressive on SUP.  I have to give credit to  a good friend – Jason Banico .Net/ASP/Xcode developer – for getting me started on it)



Data Model at a glance

 (Yes – there’s a market settlement engine there somewhere. We never showed it, the same way you never saw real coding in the movie “Hackers”)



Technologies at a glance

Sybase Unwired Platform got explored but never made it. I’ll regret that forever.  Dan if you’re listening, it was my bad for letting the Assets team take over your time. But I would really like to have that 30 minutes on “building  and managing the hybrid web container” now please. 🙂



The Usual Suspects

Tony de Thomasis, Rod Taubman, Paul Hawking, Nigel James, Sarat Atluri, John Patterson, Glen Simpson, Wilbert Sison



Did we look a lot more serious after we won? (Holy *&*&!!  We were just playing around yesterday…. this means something now.)


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