Mobility News Weekly – December 23, 2010
For those interested in mobile retailing applications, mobile money, mobile commerce and mobile banking, I have written separate newsletters on these topics that explore these subjects in more depth.
Now for this week’s news:
Expectations for the tablet market in 2011 are positive, but to put things in context tablets will still be niche devices, maybe 15 percent of smartphone sales. We’ll see more supply than demand in 2011, and probably some vicious price competition because Apple will remain the leader in style, features and shipments.
The challenge to RIM in its key market, north America, was highlighted by analysis of Verizon’s smartphone sales, which showed that the BlackBerry had slumped from 90 percent of the carrier’s total to just 20 percent in the space of a year.
The number of mobile phones in use will soon exceed 3.3 billion, or half the world’s population. No technology has ever spread faster around the globe. The mobile phone took less than two decades to reach this degree of penetration. Two recent reports analyze how to add the “next billion” to the subscriber list.
Mobile application download volume is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 31.2 percent over the 2010 to 2015 period. Total global end user mobile application download revenue is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 25.4 percent over the 2010 to 2015 period.
Market research firm IDC recently announced its prediction that mobile application revenues will experience a compound annual growth rate of 60 percent over the next four years. IDC predicts market growth will reflect the acceleration of downloaded apps. The number of downloaded apps is expected to grow from 10.9 billion worldwide this year to 76.9 billion in 2014. That will translate into mobile app revenues surpassing $35 billion in 2014.
Mobile application stores’ worldwide download revenue exceeded $4.2 billion in 2009 and will grow to $29.5 billion by the end of 2013.
Nokia’s dominance at the top of the smartphone market in Western Europe is under severe threat – with Apple’s iPhone and a resurgent Sony Ericsson offering carving into its market share.
Earlier this month Nielsen Company revealed data indicating BlackBerry may lose ground in their market share when shoppers upgrade their cell phones next time around.
Leaked Verizon data obtained from analysts and posted in the Wall Street Journal indicates that 80 percent of Verizon smartphone sales in November were Android devices. That’s not great news for BlackBerry who, despite still being profitable, has seen a borderline ridiculous decline in the last few years.
A recent ABI report stated that between 2009 and 2015, application downloads in the Asia-Pacific region will clock a compound annual growth rate of 30 percent while application revenues will go up by 20 percent. By 2013, app downloads will hit 2.4 billion in Asia, accounting for about 20 percent of the world’s total available market.
RIM earned 5.5 billion dollars in sales this quarter, a 40 percent increase over last year and a lot higher than the 4.62 billion dollars booked in the previous quarter. Revenue was derived 82 percent from the sale of BlackBerry handsets and 15 percent from services.
According to J.P. Morgan’s estimates, Apple will command 61 percent of the overall tablet market by the end of 2011 and 44.3 percent by the end of 2012. Apple captured 95 percent of the tablet market in the third quarter, according to Strategy Analytics, although many of the iPad’s competitors, while announced, have yet to hit the market.
As Motorola Inc. preps for a formal split early next year, the “when-issued” shares of its spinoff companies opened for trading Friday. Motorola Mobility Holdings Inc., the company’s smartphone division, opened at $27.50, then fell 9.1 percent to $25. Motorola Solutions Inc., the business that makes public safety radios, handheld scanners and telecommunications network gear, opened at $39.25 and rose 3.2 percent to $40.51 in recent trading.
A hot topic these days is defining a mobility business case. The rationale is simple: Mobility budgets have been rising more than 10 percent year over year for the past three years — even though IT budgets overall have been declining.
HSN is letting consumers shop its live streaming video and 15 channels of archived content featured in a new iPad application. The HSN application lets users stream live video from HSN and HSN2 or watch previously-aired content from the network’s video library on the screen while simultaneously browsing related products on the bottom half of the screen. Additionally, customers can enlarge any aspect of the application.
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